Asif Ali Zardari, the President of Pakistan, has problems. He had a coalition with the opposition before toppling Pervez Musharraf but since becoming President he has wavered from some positions, including freeing judges who were imprisoned by Musharraf, in order to maintain his hold on power. In recent days Zardari faced major countrywide demonstrations over it and caved into the opposition's demands. But I do not think his troubles are over. Given the history of Pakistan, the military has ruled it for most of its existence since getting freedom from the colonial power of Britain in 1947. The military could be breathing down Zardari's neck and a military take over may happen again. The Generals may not take over the Presidency but rather appoint a puppet and take over day-to-day governing.
The instability in Pakistan is an Achilles' heel for Obama and the US. Instability in Pakistan may bring more woes for Obama than he expected. Northern and Western parts of Pakistan, such as Baluchistan and the Northwestern territories, are already strongholds of rebels.
Millions of Afghans, especially from its southern part, have taken refuge in Pakistan since 1978 when the former USSR invaded Afghanistan. That process of migration has continued for over 30 years now and Afghans, especially Pashtuns, are a force to be reckoned with in Pakistan. They have spread all over the country and they are sympathetic to Afghanistan and Taliban causes, For some of them, Osama bin Laden is an iconic figure thanks to the handling of Afghan war by Bush. It has made more enemies than friends. All this rings danger bells for the US and maybe for the world. Pakistan is a nuclear power and if nukes do get into the hands of those who detest the US, this along with the already existing animosity with India over Kashmir, means trouble. Watch out world. US power and any other powers may not be able to control this explosion. Therefore diplomacy and quick resolution of the situation is essential to avoid looming catastrophe. Military victory in Afghanistan is simply impossible especially when the situation in Pakistan is factored in.
Obama has too much on his plate. Besides the economy, these wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are not going to go away easily. Bush and his cronies are now saying they have made the US safe but the reality is that the US and the whole world has been endangered because of Bush-Cheney blunders. Other super powers are sensing the weakness of the US. Russia wants to establish Russian combat aircraft stations in Cuba which sounds like the early 1960s when there was the Cuban Missile Crisis (and nuclear war was narrowly averted). Venezuela is inviting Russia to station its fighter aircraft in that country. This looks like countering U.S. plans to deploy a missile shield in Central Europe. China is flexing its muscles with the recent confrontation of the US ship Impeccable in the South China Sea where the Chinese are challenging the US ship's presence there. Lots of trouble for Obama. It is hoped that the world will come out of this dangerous situation started by the Bush-Cheney dark era.
For Obama, a good starting point would be to defuse the Afghanistan/Pakistan ticking bomb first.
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