Benazir Bhutto: Who killed her?

There are already several theories being put forward about the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto. One of the theories is that Al-Qaeda operatives are responsible - this is the theory put forward by Musharraf and his gang.

But, did Al-Qaeda do it? Highly unlikely.

Why highly unlikely? Because by carrying off such an assassination, they will gain nothing and stand to lose alot.

According to many media reports, top Al-Qaeda operatives (including, some say, Osama Bin Laden himself) are hiding in the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. To be safe and protected, these operatives need the help and support of locals.

Al-Qaeda is fanatical, but they are not stupid. By killing a popular Pakistani leader - who has taken on an iconic stature after her death - they will be endangering their own safety as locals would be highly likely to turn against them.

Moreover, if Al-Qaeda can manipulate Musharraf - who has the army behind him - they would have been able to manipulate Bhutto - who doesn't have such military backing - much more easily.

So, who most likely assassinated Bhutto? A more believable theory is that Musharraf and his gang were either directly or indirectly responsible. They had the most to gain... or at least that is what they must have thought.

Bhutto was the biggest threat to Musharraf's monopoly on power. Musharraf's government must have thought that, after she was dead, people would soon forget about her and he could therefore continue his reign. However, what Musharraf and company did not anticipate is the monumental reaction to this assassination, and Bhutto gaining martyrdom status, all of which make Musharraf's hold on power even more tenuous.

My prediction, Musharraf will not survive in power much beyond 2008. He will be forced to resign, but before he resigns he will try to ensure his own protection. Musharraf may consent to another General, who is friendly to him, to take power. If this is the case, then Pakistan is in for many more years of military dictatorship unless this new General seriously messes up.

Regardless of what happens, Pakistan is in for a very rough ride. It is already destabilized because of the War in neighbouring Afghanistan, and the assassination of Bhutto will only make matters worse.

If the Bush administration subscribes to the Musharraf government's official position on this assassination, America will stand to lose further credibility in Pakistan. Also, by the looks of things, Anti-Bush and Anti-American sentiments will only get worse unless a Democrat - who can improve America's image overseas - is elected to the Whitehouse in 2008.

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