Given the history of the region and Pakistan, my prediction is that Zardari will be gone in a year. Military will likely take over again. The military is addicted to power there. My prediction for Musharaff's was right on. Let us see if this prediction comes to pass.
The new military government may or may not be friendly to the United States. How will that fit with the US? It does not look good for the region and for the Afghanistan situation.
Click here to read the story.
After the recent media coverage on Swat Valley I did some research of my own because those faces of innocent children bother me whether they are in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Swat Valley, Iraq, Sri Lanka, Gaza, or elsewhere. It is my understanding that after Alexander the Great was in that area it had been relatively a peaceful place and avoided trouble during the USSR invasion of Afghanistan. It is also one of the most beautiful places in the world. However that all changed after Bush invaded Afghanistan and some Taliban moved into the area. Now it is becoming a killing field. And that beautiful place has turned into a living hell for local residents. What rights does anyone have to do that?
It looks that Zardari of Pakistan (a.k.a "Mr. 10%" - a reference to his being corrupt when his wife Bhutto was in power) is under great pressure from the US to do something in Swat and military action has been taken. It is resulting in the killing of innocent civilians and displacing close to a million people. Since these young kids are being put through hell don't be surprised that they become in future "terrorists."
Where is all this leading to? We can never win there militarily. A former US soldier was interviewed on CNN and he said the only way is to talk to local people and that killing in Swat Valley will further discredit the US. If the US or US sponsored aggression stops, then it is possible to win the heart and minds of local people.
As far as our role in Afghanistan, I believe Harper must stop playing Alexander the Degrade. He should consider pulling out of Afghanistan and only play a role of peacekeeper assisting with socio-economic development to give back our dignity as peacekeepers. If we stay there as a combatant power then we are going deeper into the quicksand and putting our soldiers in harms way. I think it is about time that Steve comes to his senses. He must realize that his idol Bush is long gone and we are really not getting any gratitude from the US.
Now is the time for Iggy to show some guts and leadership instead of personal aggrandizement. Hey Iggy, so far you have been a major disappointment and if you maintain your current narcissistic approach then it will be nothing more than a second coming of Harper if you get elected PM.
Our majestic leader was in Afghanistan on a surprise visit. Since he was not invited to the Whitehouse when Karzai of Afghanistan and Asif Zardari of Pakistan were meeting Obama, he went to Afghanistan in desperation to show that he is a major player in the conflict and on the international stage. Other than wasting the tax payers money, I do not see any merit to his visit especially when Karzai is sitting in Washington D.C.
Even Obama is slowly pulling back from this war. He inherited this horrible war and being in quicksand up to the eyebrows, it will cause some hurt before it all ends. It is encouraging that he has put the diplomacy card on the table.
Harper wants to live in the glory days of Bush when Harper considered himself a big kahuna. Harper also has the illusions of being a conqueror. Bush was stupid enough to start this horrible and unwinnable war and quickly moved to Iraq, jeopardizing both regions and making them unstable for a long time to come. Bush also chose destruction over diplomacy. Harper is still into that illusionary mode of his master Bush.
Hey Steve, stop wasting our money and stop putting our soldiers in harms way. You should stay in Afghanistan and be a soldier for a while, then you might understand what damage you are inflicting.
Taliban are coming! Taliban are coming to take over Islamabad and eventually Pakistan! Is it possible that it is a one big scam? Maybe the Pakistani army is trying to scare the dickens out of the government of Asif Ali Zardari and is readying to take over the reigns of power themselves. After all, Pakistan has been under military junta most of its life.
However the Taliban, or in the past Pashtuns whose sizable faction is affiliated with the Taliban now, have been in Pakistani territory since its birth. It is an ethnic group that lives on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Thanks to the botched Bush invasion, some factions of Pashtuns have been radicalized.
It would look that Pashtuns always had a fair amount of influence in Pakistan as they have held influential government positions. In that case, why would they like to take over the Pakistani government militarily. To give you an idea of Pashtun influence, I believe one of the longest serving military Presidents of Pakistan was Ayub Khan and I also understand he was Pashtun. It was an important reason, his being Pashtun, that the capital of Pakistan was moved from Karachi, thousands miles towards north to Islamabad, to his home territory which is not far from the stronghold of the Pashtuns. Islamabad did not exist prior to that, he built a brand new city and declared it the capital of the country. Now he was President in the 1950s and the 1960s. So being such a powerful ethnic group, why would they want to invade Islamabad and take over.
Also it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for a few Pashtuns turned Taliban to defeat the Pakistani army. It is one of the biggest, most well-equipped and well-trained armies in the World. Therefore, this Taliban invasion does not sound right. There is something screwy – playing with the nerves of Asif Ali Zardari, who is a weak leader, and with the nerves of gun totting Americans.
In conclusion, I will add that Bush-Cheney, Rumsfeld and other cowboys of the pack did destabilize Pakistan through the botched invasion 0f 2001. It is hoped that Obama will use a more thoughtful strategy to calm things down in Pakistan and bring some sanity and stability to Afghanistan. This cannot be done through military conquest. Winning hearts and minds, and diplomacy, may stand a better chance.
Asif Ali Zardari, the President of Pakistan, has problems. He had a coalition with the opposition before toppling Pervez Musharraf but since becoming President he has wavered from some positions, including freeing judges who were imprisoned by Musharraf, in order to maintain his hold on power. In recent days Zardari faced major countrywide demonstrations over it and caved into the opposition's demands. But I do not think his troubles are over. Given the history of Pakistan, the military has ruled it for most of its existence since getting freedom from the colonial power of Britain in 1947. The military could be breathing down Zardari's neck and a military take over may happen again. The Generals may not take over the Presidency but rather appoint a puppet and take over day-to-day governing.
The instability in Pakistan is an Achilles' heel for Obama and the US. Instability in Pakistan may bring more woes for Obama than he expected. Northern and Western parts of Pakistan, such as Baluchistan and the Northwestern territories, are already strongholds of rebels.
Millions of Afghans, especially from its southern part, have taken refuge in Pakistan since 1978 when the former USSR invaded Afghanistan. That process of migration has continued for over 30 years now and Afghans, especially Pashtuns, are a force to be reckoned with in Pakistan. They have spread all over the country and they are sympathetic to Afghanistan and Taliban causes, For some of them, Osama bin Laden is an iconic figure thanks to the handling of Afghan war by Bush. It has made more enemies than friends. All this rings danger bells for the US and maybe for the world. Pakistan is a nuclear power and if nukes do get into the hands of those who detest the US, this along with the already existing animosity with India over Kashmir, means trouble. Watch out world. US power and any other powers may not be able to control this explosion. Therefore diplomacy and quick resolution of the situation is essential to avoid looming catastrophe. Military victory in Afghanistan is simply impossible especially when the situation in Pakistan is factored in.
Obama has too much on his plate. Besides the economy, these wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are not going to go away easily. Bush and his cronies are now saying they have made the US safe but the reality is that the US and the whole world has been endangered because of Bush-Cheney blunders. Other super powers are sensing the weakness of the US. Russia wants to establish Russian combat aircraft stations in Cuba which sounds like the early 1960s when there was the Cuban Missile Crisis (and nuclear war was narrowly averted). Venezuela is inviting Russia to station its fighter aircraft in that country. This looks like countering U.S. plans to deploy a missile shield in Central Europe. China is flexing its muscles with the recent confrontation of the US ship Impeccable in the South China Sea where the Chinese are challenging the US ship's presence there. Lots of trouble for Obama. It is hoped that the world will come out of this dangerous situation started by the Bush-Cheney dark era.
For Obama, a good starting point would be to defuse the Afghanistan/Pakistan ticking bomb first.
